JP Ricciardi is pure evil

You all know what I mean. He's behind closed doors, doing seedy and objectionable things. He's constantly thinking of ways to screw the fans out of their money, meanwhile running his team into the ground. He sits in the dark, curling his moustache (invisible, maybe... But all good villains have them) and counting his money. Meanwhile, doctors are bringing in disturbing reports about the health (or lack there of) of his players, and he scoffs at them. Why should he care about their health?

Sometimes I almost think that this is what people imagine goes on behind closed doors. Ricciardi doesn't care about the $47 million dollar arm and important part of the pitching staff. It doesn't matter that he has a vested interest in him for a few more years now... Ricciardi is purposely rushing him back!

I'm sure by now you realize that I'm trying to find a clever way to lead into the news that BJ Ryan did not feel quite right yesterday in his outing against the Pirates.

Anyway, I call bullshit on the evil. In reality, the conversation was probably more like this:

BJ: "I want to pitch."
JP: "How do you feel."
BJ: "Fantastic."
JP: "How does he really feel?"
Doctor: "All reports say he's fine to pitch."
JP: "Great."

People want to think JP is purposely rushing him back, an act of desperation or something. I'm pretty sure JP is aware that he has at least one other closer option in the bullpen. And I'm sure he would be more than comfortable to let Accardo stand in for the first month if he felt it was necessary.

Guess what? The doctor cleared him to pitch. Ryan feels ready to pitch. Ryan wants to pitch. Should they shelf him? But Lindsay! It takes like 12 months to come back from TJS! Generally. But really, every arm is different. Personally, I think I'll take the word of the licensed medical professional. I don't know shit about rehabbing ligament replacement, and I'm quite sure that most of the people that are blaming the staff do either.

Chances are good anyway that it's just normal pains. If it's not, I'm sure they'll shut him down.

At least we know that Ryan is smart enough to let them know about the aches and pains. If he was trying to make himself a hero by rushing himself in to hit the DL during the second week of April, I doubt he would've mentioned it at all.

Also, Marty York wrote an article for the Metro about the Yankees today. He calls them deranged and evil. Well done, Marty. I think that was the perfect amount of drama. I personally appreciate you documenting the cat-fight between Hank Steinbrenner and well... Everyone. Also, apparently Papelbon is a mouse. Good one, Hank. Then again, York wrote it, so I'm inclined to believe that every word is complete and utter bullshit. Write on, Mr. York. Write on.

Anyway, televised game tomorrow. Tallet's starting, oddly enough.

She of seemingly unpopular opinion

So, I'm here to beat yet another frequently discussed topic to death. There's quite a little situation in LF, as any Jays fan is aware... And no matter what, one guy is going to be the odd man out as they head into the season. But who? We're looking at four potential different situations...

Offense:
First I'm going to look at it from an offensive point of view. I'm going to toss some stats at you. I've ranked the situations from my least favourite option to my favourite option.

4. Shannon Stewart full-time - There's no doubt that Stewart is a fantastic, well-rounded hitter. No one's debating that. However, I admit I'm worried about his staying healthy, and I think that despite him being able to hit righties and lefties, there are actually better situations out there for this team. Check out his stats:

Shannon Stewart Career (vs RHP) - .795 OPS
Shannon Stewart Career (vs LHP) - .796 OPS

Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .740 OPS
Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .682 OPS

Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs RHP) - .758 OPS
Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs LHP) - .698 OPS

It's impressive that career-wise, Stewart has hit both lefties and righties almost equally. He hits righties harder, but he sees lefties better, as most right-handed batters tend to do.

3. Matt Stairs/Shannon Stewart platoon - I'm not going to lie to you... I don't see the merits of this arrangement. Yes, Stewart is a great hitter. However, in the last 3 years, he's hit righties considerably better than he has hit lefties. Matt Stairs is very much the same. He's also respectable against both left-handers and right-handers, but like most left-handed batters he hits righties better. I'm going to give you a glimpse of three different samples. First, the OPS that we could expect from the platoon considering career stats, then stats from the last 3 years, then stats from last year. For those of you that complain that career stats don't tell the whole story and single season stats don't tell enough either.

Matt Stairs Career (vs RHP) - .869 OPS
Shannon Stewart Career (vs LHP) - .796 OPS

Matt Stairs Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .841 OPS
Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .682 OPS

Matt Stairs 2007 (vs RHP) - .931 OPS
Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs LHP) - .698 OPS

Of course, the production between the two of them ain't bad. But is it the best option offensively? I don't believe so.

2. Matt Stairs/Shannon Stewart "shared" time - I actually don't think this is such a bad option. Stairs isn't getting any younger (despite not showing any signs of slowing down), and Stewart hasn't exactly had a lot of luck with his feet (think Troy Glaus). Both men have the potential to hit both right-handers and left-handers... Stairs hits right-handers BETTER, but he hits lefties at a decent enough clip that his starting against them could even be justified. It would keep both players fresh, and hopefully productive.

1. Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs platoon - I know, I know. The more I read into it, the more the fans and the media seem to think that this is just a pipe-dream... But I don't understand why. I know Johnson had a terrible year last year, and on his own... Oh I'd take Stewart in a heartbeat. Without a doubt. The thing is, Reed is a more powerful weapon then you would think when used correctly. Let's take a look at the stats that we could potentially see out of this little platoon.

Matt Stairs Career (vs RHP) - .869 OPS
Reed Johnson Career (vs LHP) - .833 OPS

Matt Stairs Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .841 OPS
Reed Johnson Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .831 OPS

Matt Stairs 2007 (vs RHP) - .931 OPS
Reed Johnson 2007 (vs LHP) - .913 OPS

Ummmm... Yeah. This is a big reason why I'm quite fond of this idea. You're looking at a pretty nice amount of production out of left field with this arrangement. Even in his awful 2007, Reed beat the crap out of left-handed pitching. If both have career average years, we're looking at good production out of left field.

I know that Johnson does not hit home runs. However, the Stairs part of the platoon is quite good at that, if you remember. And I know... Reed Johnson doesn't know how to take a walk. In a little more than half as many games as Stewart, he walked 16 times. Stewart walked 47 times. Meaning... Stewart's 23.5 > Johnson's 16. However, Johnson was also hit by 11 pitches to Stewart's 3. So, in free passes: Johnson's 27 > Stewart's 26.5... But obviously close. And I know... In most cases, I'd laugh at myself for counting HBP as an asset, as it's not a skill. But you have to admit, Reed's crowding the plate makes him an annoyance and does get him on base. He's been hit 80 times in his career. It's not a coincidence. You can bank on his getting plunked.

Against southpaws, Reed hits for better AVG and SLG. Stewart trumps him in OBP by .004.

I know Reed looks awful as an option for full-time player offensively. He shouldn't be batting against right-handers. Flat-out.

Speed:
I know, I know... Stewart has clearly had the best running game over his career. In his prime, Stewart was a fantastic runner. Unfortunately, surgeries on his feet have left him with considerably less speed than he once had. Let's compare some SB.

In the last three years (career stats aren't really relevant any more as Stewart is not the base stealer he once was), Johnson has stolen 17 bags. Honestly though, his success PCT is around 62%. That ain't great. Stewart, on the other hand has stolen 21 in the last three years. Stewart is successful 70% of the time, which isn't really that fantastic either... Statistically, these guys aren't doing great things for their team with the CS. And I know, Reed had back surgery and his speed suffered. Getting on base a significant amount less than Stewart, still recovering, and with just a little more than half the at bats, Johnson has just under half the SB Stewart did. Weird, I know.

But Lindsay! Speed is not all about stolen bases! I know, I know. Johnson's got more doubles, and more triples in fewer AB. I was trying to get information about going from first to third, but no luck. If that info is out there, let me know.

Anyway, when it comes to speed... It's close. I know people don't want to believe that, but at this point in Stewart's career, it's still close. I'll give Stewart a slight edge due to the possibility that Johnson is considerably slower than he used to be (though all sources are saying his running looks 100% better).

Defense:
I think this one's kind of obvious. Believe it or not though, it's closer than you would think. Stewart is a good fielder with a terrible arm. Johnson is a good fielder with a great arm. Both have basically the same range.

Let's just say that in 582.2 innings, Johnson had 3 assists. Stewart, in 1186.0 innings had 4 assists. Last year, healthy, Johnson had 12. Big difference... Guys aren't going to run on Johnson because they know how quickly he gets rid of the ball, and they know his throws are usually pretty much on the money.

Add in that Johnson plays all three OF positions, and he has the clear edge. He can also be subbed in in late innings to shore up the defense on games when the Jays have the lead and Stairs had started.

Money:
I know everyone's making a big deal out of Johnson's contract, but they don't save that much by buying him out, really. The deadline to buy out Reed at 1/6 has already passed, if I'm not mistaken... So now they would owe Reed 1/4 of his contract. Add in what they'll owe Stewart after buying out Johnson, and you're looking at savings of around $900K. Not enough to sacrifice the defense and the potential offense.

Plan B:
Obviously, Stairs is important to our depth... And I'm telling you now. If Thomas or Overbay goes down and Stairs has to stand in for them, I know I sure as hell would rather have Stewart in LF than Johnson. However, is Johnson in LF full-time the only option if injuries hit? Pffft. Of course not. Adam Lind still exists. At first he could platoon with Johnson, and eventually if he steals the job... So be it. I know a lot of people soured on Lind last year, but seriously... Look at the kid's minor league stats. He's hit at every level, he's going to hit eventually. Experiencing adversity for the first time in pro-ball last year could only have been good for him.

I think the main worry is that Johnson goes down. Stairs shows no signs of breaking down, but he is 40. We can't have Scutaro platooning if he goes down... Scutaro's got to be primarily IF depth. I'm thinking that in the situation that Johnson gets hurt, Lind will be called up to share time.

Overall:
I think it's obvious which way I'm leaning. I'm not going to lie to you... I'm a Reed fan. I've tried to look at both sides, but whenever I look at it, it keeps coming up that the Johnson/Stairs platoon is what is best for the team. Naturally, this is all contingent on whether or not Johnson is healthy. I'm not in ST, I'm not a doctor, but if he looks healthy in ST, passes any physicals, and plays well... He should be the choice over Stewart.

It's tough, because letting go of Stewart means letting go of a .300 hitter with decent power and decent speed. Letting go of Johnson means letting go of a 4th OF that doesn't have the legacy that Stewart has with the team. However, that 4th OF has the potential to have some truly great production out of LF if he hits lefties even close to his career average.

Personally, I think that if Johnson is let go there are only three reasons why it happened.

1. Reed slumps through the rest of ST and Stewart tears the cover off of the ball.
2. Stewart was promised the job when signed, and they're only letting Johnson compete out of respect for him (unlikely conspiracy theories are funny).
3. And the most likely... Johnson is simply not healthy and the Jays have no confidence that he's going to get any better.

So, that's my two cents.

I know a lot of people disagree with me on this, and I really want to hear from you. Let me know whether I've been too selective with my stats, if anything's inaccurate, or any way my reasoning's wrong.

On a completely random note:
Random, but related... I had a bizarre dream the other night. Basically I was at a pet store, and there was a small, blue (symbolizing the Jays, I guess), Scottish Terrier that they were talking about putting down. No one wanted him, so they were going to destroy him. I felt awful, and rescued him from being put down... As I purchased him, the cashier told me that his name was Reed Johnson.

True story.

The whole "being put down thing" didn't bode well for Reed, but I DID manage to save him. So that bodes better. So I'm assuming that if Johnson keeps his job, I will be single-handedly responsible. And I'm going to take credit for it if he succeeds and deny it completely if it all goes to hell.

I love being irrational.

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

Spring Training = Serious business.

That's it guys, I'm going to level with you. It's all over. It's all done, finished. There's no point in even WATCHING the Jays play this season at the rate they're going. Hell, they should just refuse to play. I mean, it's only completely logical. They're 5-11 right now. That's awful! Shameful! Let's do some calculation to look at just how godawful this team is going to be.

Over 162 games, they're looking at a 51-111!!! And that's giving them an extra win. GOD. JP is in soooo much trouble. On the bright side, Hill is in the running for MVP this year. That .524 AVG is amazing. Well, at least we can find solace in the fact that the Yankees and Red Sox won't take the division this year. The standings will shake out like this:

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. New York Yankees
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Shucks for the O's though, the Royals are taking the wild card. It was close though. The Red Sox and the Indians are going to be crushed. I mean, finishing so low in your respective divisions after an ALCS berth must be tough. Also, cheers to the A's winning the West. They have it in the bag.

Honestly, do I sound like enough of a jackass yet? If not, please let me know. I could go on. There are so many people out there with their fingers on the panic button, acting like the Spring Training record actually matters. Do we want them to hit? In the season, yes. Otherwise who the hell cares? Wells and Johnson almost hit .400 last spring training and we all know how that one turned out. I mean, Marcum went in yesterday throwing a new pitch, not caring that it was getting hit around. He kept throwing it to see if he could get a feel for it.

I understand that people are concerned about the offense in the wake of what happened last year. This panic is a hangover from watching everyone pop up to the opposing infield all year. It's understandable. But people have to realize that the time to win is NOT Spring Training. No one remembers who finished first the year previous in Spring Training. Spring Training is the time to work on things, try out new approaches, and get a feel for what game action is like again.

If everyone comes out healthy, the numbers they put up don't make a lick of difference.

Ichiro Suzuki is 1-25 this spring. Something tells me he's going to hit .325ish once again in 2008, regardless of an abysmal spring.

ST is a success if everyone's healthy. Oh shi-

As per usual, I'm late to the party. Very late to the party, in this particular case, as Spring Training is like... Half over. And I haven't recanted any scores or bitched about a thing since the beginning of it all, and have very few excuses to offer. I guess following the games has been all of the procrastination I've been allowed the last couple of weeks. Until now!

Ouch dude, ouch:
Now, if you'll allow me to beat a dead horse... I'm pretty sure that if you're reading this blog, you're well aware of what's happened to Casey Janssen. The whole torn labrum thing doesn't look very good for hurlers, as I'm sure most of you are well aware. Personally, I'm driven crazy when I'm faced with a concept I know nothing about, so naturally I've been doing a lot of reading about the labrum and the kind of tear Casey has. So here's a little bit of a mini-report on what I've learned about the labrum. If you medical buffs out there spot anything out of order, give me a shout. If you want to skip the medical bullshit because you're bored, go wild. I won't judge. Just ignore me from here on out.

What is a labrum? Basically it's a thin bit of collagen that rests between two bones (the head of the humerus and the glenoid fossa, the curve in which the humerus sits). It provides the shoulder with shock absorption and is very important to the connective structure of the shoulder. A tear reduces the strength of the shoulder greatly, so in addition to the discomfort Casey was experiencing, he would also have a noticeable lack of stamina should he attempt to pitch through it.

A need for labrum surgery is pretty hard to diagnose... Sometimes it takes 5 doctors looking at an MRI to find a problem. Even then, sometimes exploratory surgery must be done determine whether or not there actually is a tear. Just for fun, here are some pics to look at with the difference between a torn labrum and a torn labrum post-op. The left with the arrows is pre-op, the right image is post-op, obviously. The images were found here.
The problem with the labrum is that it's NOT a muscle... Muscles can be strengthened both surgically and naturally. The labrum is instead unable to be strengthened through any means. If Casey was willing to sit out and recover, he could return healed in two-three years... Which obviously isn't an option for a young pitcher who had just figured it out.

Here's a little bit of information more relevant to Janssen himself. His tear is small and starting from the anterior, says the Globe, which is actually good news for athletes. It's also known as a SLAP tear (Superior Labral tear from Anterior to Posterior), which occurs at the point where the head of the biceps tendon attaches.

I'm sure you're probably wondering... How did this happen? Well, it's caused mainly when a pitcher throws too often or when they are fatigued. Before everyone starts flipping about how "It's Gibby's fault because he pitched Janssen too much last year!", I'm going to reinforce this... Every arm is different. It's very possible Casey didn't even know he was experiencing shoulder fatigue (many don't know) and it's not really possible to pinpoint if and when a tear will happen... It just does. You can't "baby" a pitcher to avoid it. If it's going to tear, it's going to tear, unless the pitcher stops throwing all together... Which kind of defeats the whole point when talking about salvaging a pitcher's career.

Now we'll talk a little bit about the procedure to fix this little problem. Non-surgical means include strengthening exercises, icing, medications, and anti-inflammatories. However, the healing process through these means is long... As mentioned before, 2-3 years. Of course, there is a surgical process. Essentially an orthopedic surgeon would repair or remove the torn part of the labrum through arthroscopic surgery or through a full open shoulder procedure. Sounds fun.

The rehab process from the surgery itself lasts about 3 to 4 months... Which pretty much jives with the time that Ricciardi gave of Janssen picking up a ball in 4 months. The problem is, he's going to be as weak as a baby chick for a while and we're going to have to keep out fingers crossed that he can get back to where he was. He has a long road ahead of him, probably being unable to move his arm for the first six weeks. Unpleasant.

With all that being said, we have to be a bit realistic here... The torn labrum is a pitcher's worst enemy, and the chances aren't great. I'm sure by now you've read the excellent (albeit discouraging) article by Will Carroll (see link below) about the torn labrum and how it destroys pitchers. In the article, you're looking at about a 3% chance we'll see Casey being Casey again. Freaking ouch.

Personally, I'm choosing to take the optimistic approach. Robert Gordon, An orthopedic surgeon in Toronto with a background in sports medicine, claims that although a torn labrum can be a career killer... That doesn't mean that it necessarily is. He claims Janssen's chances are 50/50. I like that a whole lot better than 3/97, personally. Really, Casey is looking at the best case scenario for someone with a tear. He's young (he'll recover more quickly than an older guy would), it's small (according to JP anyway, for what it's worth), and it's an anterior tear, which is better news than a posterior tear for an athlete. I think the fact that JP considered letting him pitch through it initially is either a good sign that it could be a good deal worse or that JP is a jackass. I'd bank on the former, actually. According to Jeff Blair, he did tell Janssen it was an option, but he didn't like the idea. He might have favoured it if Janssen was a veteran guy with mileage, but since he was young... He didn't want to risk it. Some guys do actually pitch with tears, and pitch quite well. Finally, I think Janssen's "bulldoggedness" (as JP put it) is going to keep him from giving up. No doubt that this kid is going to fight for it, and I don't think there's going to be a Jays fan in the world that won't be cheering him on.

Where does this leave the Jays? Well, it leaves them in a good position still, but with slightly less depth. Think of it this way... There were plans for a Janssen-less bullpen, and there were plans for a Janssen-less rotation. Janssen was an asset, no doubt... But they can hold down the fort without him. I don't like the idea of Purcey being the next in line if and when Burnett goes down, but I guess we'll have to cross that bridge when we come to it. Though I'm not 100% sure JP is going to be comfortable with that approach; we may see a trade a-brewin'.

I think the heavier impact of this is on a personal level for Janssen. Can you imagine having the best year you've had, doing something you love, and then suddenly finding out you may never be able to do it again? I'm sure Janssen is well aware of what he's facing, and it probably scares the bejebus out of him. Ricciardi claimed he was "crushed", and I think that's pretty fair. It's an awful thing to happen to anyone. I think the fact that Janssen is such a nice, young, talented kid makes it that much worse.

I guess at this point we just have to hope JP is right. Janssen's a young kid, having his surgery, putting it behind him, and moving on. Also, we can laugh about how freaking sad it is that I looked this much into it.

If you're looking for more information, or just want to see my sources:
Baseball's most fearsome injury - By Will Carroll
Shoulder Pain Info - Labral Tears
Janssen sidelined for season - Robert Macleod
Janssen's injury sends shock waves - Jeff Blair

Notice what I did there? I sprinkled in all those pictures to spare you the pain. Too bad that didn't work.

Minor note:
Also, Lind, Thigpen, Diaz, Coats, Purcey and Inglett were optioned to Syracuse today. Lydon and Patterson were reassigned to the minor league camp. This leaves:

Pitchers:
Randy Wells
Armando Benitez
Shawn Camp
Jesse Carlson
Lance Carter
Kane Davis
Mike Gosling
John Parrish

Position Players:
Sal Fasano (C)
Hector Luna (IF)
Matt Watson (OF)

With the exception of Wells (who can't be sent down, but only returned to the Cubs)... Those men are all non-roster invitees. Meaning they sent down everyone that they could without losing anyone.

For those of you that have been bitching about it... We're going to see a lot more play out of our regulars from here on in. Time to see what these boys can do during fake play.

On a final note, in honour of Zaun absolutely nailing it in the game today... Have some Ninja Zaun.

Also, TSN can blow me for making the lack of ST success seem like more of a big deal than it is. It's because of comments like the ones they're making that make the "the sky is falling" crowd come out. "None of the projected starters on the Jays has an ERA under 4 this spring" they say in a sad tone. Who the fuck cares? FAKE GAMES, TSN. FAKE GAMES.