She of seemingly unpopular opinion

So, I'm here to beat yet another frequently discussed topic to death. There's quite a little situation in LF, as any Jays fan is aware... And no matter what, one guy is going to be the odd man out as they head into the season. But who? We're looking at four potential different situations...

Offense:
First I'm going to look at it from an offensive point of view. I'm going to toss some stats at you. I've ranked the situations from my least favourite option to my favourite option.

4. Shannon Stewart full-time - There's no doubt that Stewart is a fantastic, well-rounded hitter. No one's debating that. However, I admit I'm worried about his staying healthy, and I think that despite him being able to hit righties and lefties, there are actually better situations out there for this team. Check out his stats:

Shannon Stewart Career (vs RHP) - .795 OPS
Shannon Stewart Career (vs LHP) - .796 OPS

Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .740 OPS
Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .682 OPS

Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs RHP) - .758 OPS
Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs LHP) - .698 OPS

It's impressive that career-wise, Stewart has hit both lefties and righties almost equally. He hits righties harder, but he sees lefties better, as most right-handed batters tend to do.

3. Matt Stairs/Shannon Stewart platoon - I'm not going to lie to you... I don't see the merits of this arrangement. Yes, Stewart is a great hitter. However, in the last 3 years, he's hit righties considerably better than he has hit lefties. Matt Stairs is very much the same. He's also respectable against both left-handers and right-handers, but like most left-handed batters he hits righties better. I'm going to give you a glimpse of three different samples. First, the OPS that we could expect from the platoon considering career stats, then stats from the last 3 years, then stats from last year. For those of you that complain that career stats don't tell the whole story and single season stats don't tell enough either.

Matt Stairs Career (vs RHP) - .869 OPS
Shannon Stewart Career (vs LHP) - .796 OPS

Matt Stairs Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .841 OPS
Shannon Stewart Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .682 OPS

Matt Stairs 2007 (vs RHP) - .931 OPS
Shannon Stewart 2007 (vs LHP) - .698 OPS

Of course, the production between the two of them ain't bad. But is it the best option offensively? I don't believe so.

2. Matt Stairs/Shannon Stewart "shared" time - I actually don't think this is such a bad option. Stairs isn't getting any younger (despite not showing any signs of slowing down), and Stewart hasn't exactly had a lot of luck with his feet (think Troy Glaus). Both men have the potential to hit both right-handers and left-handers... Stairs hits right-handers BETTER, but he hits lefties at a decent enough clip that his starting against them could even be justified. It would keep both players fresh, and hopefully productive.

1. Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs platoon - I know, I know. The more I read into it, the more the fans and the media seem to think that this is just a pipe-dream... But I don't understand why. I know Johnson had a terrible year last year, and on his own... Oh I'd take Stewart in a heartbeat. Without a doubt. The thing is, Reed is a more powerful weapon then you would think when used correctly. Let's take a look at the stats that we could potentially see out of this little platoon.

Matt Stairs Career (vs RHP) - .869 OPS
Reed Johnson Career (vs LHP) - .833 OPS

Matt Stairs Last 3 Years (vs RHP) - .841 OPS
Reed Johnson Last 3 Years (vs LHP) - .831 OPS

Matt Stairs 2007 (vs RHP) - .931 OPS
Reed Johnson 2007 (vs LHP) - .913 OPS

Ummmm... Yeah. This is a big reason why I'm quite fond of this idea. You're looking at a pretty nice amount of production out of left field with this arrangement. Even in his awful 2007, Reed beat the crap out of left-handed pitching. If both have career average years, we're looking at good production out of left field.

I know that Johnson does not hit home runs. However, the Stairs part of the platoon is quite good at that, if you remember. And I know... Reed Johnson doesn't know how to take a walk. In a little more than half as many games as Stewart, he walked 16 times. Stewart walked 47 times. Meaning... Stewart's 23.5 > Johnson's 16. However, Johnson was also hit by 11 pitches to Stewart's 3. So, in free passes: Johnson's 27 > Stewart's 26.5... But obviously close. And I know... In most cases, I'd laugh at myself for counting HBP as an asset, as it's not a skill. But you have to admit, Reed's crowding the plate makes him an annoyance and does get him on base. He's been hit 80 times in his career. It's not a coincidence. You can bank on his getting plunked.

Against southpaws, Reed hits for better AVG and SLG. Stewart trumps him in OBP by .004.

I know Reed looks awful as an option for full-time player offensively. He shouldn't be batting against right-handers. Flat-out.

Speed:
I know, I know... Stewart has clearly had the best running game over his career. In his prime, Stewart was a fantastic runner. Unfortunately, surgeries on his feet have left him with considerably less speed than he once had. Let's compare some SB.

In the last three years (career stats aren't really relevant any more as Stewart is not the base stealer he once was), Johnson has stolen 17 bags. Honestly though, his success PCT is around 62%. That ain't great. Stewart, on the other hand has stolen 21 in the last three years. Stewart is successful 70% of the time, which isn't really that fantastic either... Statistically, these guys aren't doing great things for their team with the CS. And I know, Reed had back surgery and his speed suffered. Getting on base a significant amount less than Stewart, still recovering, and with just a little more than half the at bats, Johnson has just under half the SB Stewart did. Weird, I know.

But Lindsay! Speed is not all about stolen bases! I know, I know. Johnson's got more doubles, and more triples in fewer AB. I was trying to get information about going from first to third, but no luck. If that info is out there, let me know.

Anyway, when it comes to speed... It's close. I know people don't want to believe that, but at this point in Stewart's career, it's still close. I'll give Stewart a slight edge due to the possibility that Johnson is considerably slower than he used to be (though all sources are saying his running looks 100% better).

Defense:
I think this one's kind of obvious. Believe it or not though, it's closer than you would think. Stewart is a good fielder with a terrible arm. Johnson is a good fielder with a great arm. Both have basically the same range.

Let's just say that in 582.2 innings, Johnson had 3 assists. Stewart, in 1186.0 innings had 4 assists. Last year, healthy, Johnson had 12. Big difference... Guys aren't going to run on Johnson because they know how quickly he gets rid of the ball, and they know his throws are usually pretty much on the money.

Add in that Johnson plays all three OF positions, and he has the clear edge. He can also be subbed in in late innings to shore up the defense on games when the Jays have the lead and Stairs had started.

Money:
I know everyone's making a big deal out of Johnson's contract, but they don't save that much by buying him out, really. The deadline to buy out Reed at 1/6 has already passed, if I'm not mistaken... So now they would owe Reed 1/4 of his contract. Add in what they'll owe Stewart after buying out Johnson, and you're looking at savings of around $900K. Not enough to sacrifice the defense and the potential offense.

Plan B:
Obviously, Stairs is important to our depth... And I'm telling you now. If Thomas or Overbay goes down and Stairs has to stand in for them, I know I sure as hell would rather have Stewart in LF than Johnson. However, is Johnson in LF full-time the only option if injuries hit? Pffft. Of course not. Adam Lind still exists. At first he could platoon with Johnson, and eventually if he steals the job... So be it. I know a lot of people soured on Lind last year, but seriously... Look at the kid's minor league stats. He's hit at every level, he's going to hit eventually. Experiencing adversity for the first time in pro-ball last year could only have been good for him.

I think the main worry is that Johnson goes down. Stairs shows no signs of breaking down, but he is 40. We can't have Scutaro platooning if he goes down... Scutaro's got to be primarily IF depth. I'm thinking that in the situation that Johnson gets hurt, Lind will be called up to share time.

Overall:
I think it's obvious which way I'm leaning. I'm not going to lie to you... I'm a Reed fan. I've tried to look at both sides, but whenever I look at it, it keeps coming up that the Johnson/Stairs platoon is what is best for the team. Naturally, this is all contingent on whether or not Johnson is healthy. I'm not in ST, I'm not a doctor, but if he looks healthy in ST, passes any physicals, and plays well... He should be the choice over Stewart.

It's tough, because letting go of Stewart means letting go of a .300 hitter with decent power and decent speed. Letting go of Johnson means letting go of a 4th OF that doesn't have the legacy that Stewart has with the team. However, that 4th OF has the potential to have some truly great production out of LF if he hits lefties even close to his career average.

Personally, I think that if Johnson is let go there are only three reasons why it happened.

1. Reed slumps through the rest of ST and Stewart tears the cover off of the ball.
2. Stewart was promised the job when signed, and they're only letting Johnson compete out of respect for him (unlikely conspiracy theories are funny).
3. And the most likely... Johnson is simply not healthy and the Jays have no confidence that he's going to get any better.

So, that's my two cents.

I know a lot of people disagree with me on this, and I really want to hear from you. Let me know whether I've been too selective with my stats, if anything's inaccurate, or any way my reasoning's wrong.

On a completely random note:
Random, but related... I had a bizarre dream the other night. Basically I was at a pet store, and there was a small, blue (symbolizing the Jays, I guess), Scottish Terrier that they were talking about putting down. No one wanted him, so they were going to destroy him. I felt awful, and rescued him from being put down... As I purchased him, the cashier told me that his name was Reed Johnson.

True story.

The whole "being put down thing" didn't bode well for Reed, but I DID manage to save him. So that bodes better. So I'm assuming that if Johnson keeps his job, I will be single-handedly responsible. And I'm going to take credit for it if he succeeds and deny it completely if it all goes to hell.

I love being irrational.